Fundamental Analysis – Week of June 9 to 13, 2025
🔹 Tuesday – UK: Labour Market Data
Wage growth is expected to slow to 5.3%, while unemployment ticks up to 4.6%. Although the labour market remains resilient, weak figures may ease pressure on the Bank of England to keep rates elevated.
Takeaway 👉 Watch for intraday bearish reversal on GBPUSD if cracks emerge in labour strength.
🔹 Wednesday – US: May CPI
Headline and core CPI are expected to rise to 2.5% and 2.9% YoY, respectively. This aligns with rising wages and strong jobs data. A hotter-than-expected print would be a clear warning for the Fed.
Takeaway 👉 If CPI confirms upside surprises, summer rate cut bets may collapse fast.
🔹 Thursday – UK GDP and US Data
UK monthly GDP is projected at 0.7%, though the monthly figure could show a -0.1% slowdown, signalling a potential deceleration.
In the US, PPI and jobless claims will reveal whether inflationary pressures are spreading further.
Takeaway 👉 UK shows signs of cooling while the US continues to flex economic strength.
🔹 Friday – US: U. Michigan Inflation Expectations
If inflation expectations rise again, the Fed may have another reason to stay cautious.
Takeaway 👉 A psychological gauge, but with real impact on USD and yields.
🎯 Why is the Market Pricing in Cuts Despite Strong Data?
Although US jobs remain strong, wages are rising, and CPI is expected to heat up, rate cut probabilities for June and July have jumped, according to CME futures.
This shift seems speculative rather than data-driven:
– There's growing scepticism about official data, especially after multiple revisions by labour stats agencies.
– Markets fear a stealth tightening in financial conditions.
– Some Fed funds futures traders are front-running a rate cut cycle that hasn’t been confirmed by the Fed.
Takeaway 👉 Rate cut bets are disconnected from the current data. If CPI runs hot, expect a sharp market reversal.
Technical Analysis
USDX (Dollar Index) | H4
The index remains in a short-term downtrend, with intraday resistance at 99.31. However, price is consolidating after a sharp bullish reaction from a high-volume node at 98.25 (7 weeks ago). Last week’s POC was 98.74, now acting as a demand zone along with the current session’s POC at 98.82.
If price holds above this key volume zone, we may see a recovery pushing above the weekly open (99.03), followed by a test of 99.31. A decisive break could ignite further USD buying across majors.
But if the index falls below the 98.88–98.74 demand zone, a bearish continuation toward 98.27 and 98.00 is likely, signalling USD selling pressure.
EURUSD| H4
The pair remains in an uptrend, with key support at 1.1356 and a strong volume area around 1.1420. If price holds above this zone and pushes through 1.1453, bulls may target 1.1495 and possibly 1.1573 this week.
However, sustained price action below 1.1400 increases the risk of breaking 1.1356 support, with potential downside extension to 1.1300, suggesting an intraday bearish reversal.
Unvalidated POC (Point of Control): A high-volume zone. If the price rallied from it, it’s a demand area; if the price dropped, it’s considered supply.
